The season is a month outdated, and the Nationwide League West, as anticipated, is proving to be essentially the most aggressive division in baseball. A roundtable of NL West beat reporters gathered to look at the place issues stand as we inch towards Could:
4 groups within the NL West are above .500, and three are enjoying at a .600 clip. All of us knew this might be a aggressive division, however I’m unsure any of us predicted all 4 groups would have been this scorching from the beginning. When you needed to slender it down, what’s the foremost key to success for the workforce you cowl?
AJ Cassavell, Padres: I’ll slender it to 2 keys: pitching and Fernando Tatis Jr. 4-ninths of the Padres’ beginning lineup is on the injured record, and the underside half of their order is filled with query marks. However they’ve managed to maintain profitable due to … pitching and Fernando Tatis Jr.
We’ll begin with the pitching. The Padres not too long ago turned the primary workforce because the 1992 Braves to throw seven shutouts of their first 24 video games. The easiest way to mitigate lineup issues? Don’t enable any runs. In the meantime, Tatis has considerably improved his plate self-discipline this yr. He’s been in a position to offset some issues on the backside of the lineup due to his MVP-caliber efficiency on the prime.
Sonja Chen, Dodgers: This looks like the apparent reply, however when the three MVPs atop the order go, so do the Dodgers. When Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are on, their lineup turns into extremely troublesome to navigate. Individually, these three can flip a recreation on its head, and collectively, they kind the hardest a part of a lineup that may do harm from prime to backside.
Los Angeles’ offense has been streaky within the first month, and even Ohtani, Betts and Freeman have seen some inconsistency on the plate. However one of many greatest issues we realized in the course of the Dodgers’ 8-0 begin to their title protection is they will outhit a few of their different points on the sector. The Massive Three are often someplace close to the middle of the motion.
Steve Gilbert, D-backs: The Diamondbacks led all of baseball in runs scored final yr and have been anticipated to take a step again offensively after dropping first baseman Christian Walker and DH Joc Pederson to free company. They could but take that step again, however proper now, it’s their offense that has led the way in which this yr. Josh Naylor has executed a pleasant job changing Walker at first, and Pavin Smith has stepped as much as fill Pederson’s left-handed DH function.
Greater than that, although, outfielder Corbin Carroll is a big motive the offense is buzzing. After a brutal begin to final yr, Carroll got here out of the gates on fireplace and ranks among the many league leaders in offense. The Diamondbacks have been with out Ketel Marte for the previous three weeks as a consequence of a hamstring situation, however he’s anticipated again quickly.
Maria Guardado, Giants: The most important difference-maker for the Giants so far has been middle fielder Jung Hoo Lee, who’s wanting like a star within the making now that he’s totally recovered from the left shoulder damage that restricted him to 37 video games as a rookie final yr. However they’ve additionally gotten key manufacturing from designated hitter Wilmer Flores, who has an MLB-high 28 RBIs, and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, which has helped them overcome gradual begins from different place gamers like Willy Adames, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Patrick Bailey. Their pitching — led by ace Logan Webb and a very good bullpen — together with their improved protection has stored them in video games most days, giving them an opportunity to win even with an offense that also isn’t firing on all cylinders.
Let’s take a look at all of this via a practical lens. Historical past tells us not each workforce will have the ability to preserve skyrocketing profitable percentages the whole season – even the perfect ones expertise ebbs and flows over the course of six months. When you might, forecast one space which may show difficult for every workforce?
Cassavell: The Padres can really feel optimistic in any playoff sequence — given the entrance of their rotation, their bullpen and the celebs of their lineup (when wholesome). However realistically, profitable the division would require a degree of well being that San Diego simply isn’t getting proper now. If Yu Darvish can’t return to the rotation quickly — and if Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth and Jason Heyward aren’t again within the lineup quickly — the Padres can have a tough time holding tempo.
Chen: The Dodgers have a few of the greatest rotation depth within the recreation on paper. However there is a critical query of how a lot they will realistically get out of a few of their arms. It could take loads for the workforce to be within the scenario it was in final postseason, when L.A. was down to a few beginning pitchers in conventional roles. However Dustin Could and Tony Gonsolin are getting back from elbow accidents, and the most important midseason reinforcements — Clayton Kershaw and Shohei Ohtani — are additionally working their approach again from long-term accidents. So whereas the ceiling is extremely excessive for this group, there are additionally query marks — and that is assuming that everybody stays wholesome, which already has not been the case.
Gilbert: I touched briefly on the offense probably coming again to earth a bit, however I believe an even bigger concern proper now’s the beginning pitching depth. The discuss originally of Spring Coaching was that the workforce had too many starters with seven. However Jordan Montgomery is out for the yr they usually determined to maintain Ryne Nelson as an extended reliever with the hopes of holding him stretched out as rotation depth. That’s arduous to do, and if they will’t maintain Nelson stretched out then any damage will power them to show to unproven younger pitchers like Yilber Díaz and Cristian Mena.
Guardado: The Giants haven’t gotten a lot out of first base as a result of early struggles from Wade, in order that they’ll want extra constant manufacturing from him transferring ahead. The membership’s No. 1 prospect — Bryce Eldridge — not too long ago made his season debut at Double-A Richmond, however the group believes the 20-year-old slugger nonetheless wants a whole lot of improvement earlier than he’ll be prepared to carry down first base within the Majors, which ought to give Wade loads of runway to snap out of his funk on the plate.
Has something stunned you within the first month of the season?
Cassavell: The Padres envisioned large issues from Nick Pivetta once they signed him. However I’m unsure even they envisioned this. Pivetta has a 1.20 ERA — the bottom in Padres historical past via 5 begins — and a .155 batting common in opposition to. He’s been downright dominant in a rotation that wanted one other arm to step up after San Diego got here up quick within the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. Certain, there’s a whole lot of season left. However there’s loads of motive to consider Pivetta’s breakout is for actual. He already appears to be like like one of many offseason’s greatest bargains.
Chen: The Dodgers had been inquisitive about Tommy Edman for fairly a while earlier than buying him forward of final yr’s Commerce Deadline and signing him to an extension within the offseason. However even they’ve been stunned by simply how impactful the 2024 NL Championship Collection MVP has been early on. Essentially the most surprising approach he is contributed? Edman leads the workforce with eight homers and is effectively on tempo to surpass his profession excessive of 13. The facility is a bonus, as he is additionally been unbelievable at second base and in occasional begins in middle discipline.
Gilbert: Pavin Smith was a first-round decide in 2017 out of the College of Virginia, however he struggled to determine himself on the Main League degree. In equity, he didn’t precisely get an prolonged alternative to play over the previous couple of years. Whereas in Triple-A final yr, Smith made some changes and his manufacturing down the stretch – together with a three-homer recreation in opposition to the Astros – earned him a shot at changing Pederson. Smith has made essentially the most of that chance. Time will inform if Smith can stick with it for a full season, however the outcomes to this point have been very encouraging.
Guardado: The Giants have been clearly excessive on Lee once they signed him to a six-year, $113 million deal forward of the 2024 season, nevertheless it’s been exceptional to see how rapidly he’s been in a position to regulate to Main League pitching after lacking a lot time final yr. His elite contact abilities and skill to seek out the gaps have made him an excellent match for Oracle Park, the place he’s rapidly turn into a fan favourite. If he sustains his scorching begin, he might find yourself turning into among the finest place gamers to ever come out of the KBO.
Preseason predictions principally centered across the Dodgers, and the belief they might dominate the division, coast to the World Collection, and win it. Which, positive, might occur. However proper now, it appears to be like like L.A. operating away with the NL West just isn’t a given. In your estimation, what workforce would be the hardest for every membership to carry off for the division title?
Cassavell: The Dodgers. Their degree of rotation depth is one the Padres merely can’t match. The front-end arms in San Diego have critical upside. However so far as profitable the division goes, the Padres are going to want to seek out begins someplace on the again finish. They’ve made it work to this point, however these query marks will persist — at the very least because it pertains to a season-long pennant race. In a brief sequence, although? With Michael King, Dylan Stop, Pivetta and Darvish, the Padres would be ok with their possibilities in opposition to anyone.
Chen: My intestine says that the Padres might current a problem down the stretch as soon as extra. The Dodgers are constructed effectively in that they need to theoretically get stronger because the season goes alongside, they usually’ve already proven that they will discover methods to win regardless of not being at their greatest. However as I wrote earlier, well being does not assure quick outcomes, and well being isn’t a assure. I believe the Dodgers and Padres have some comparable qualities in that regard, the place there is a excessive ceiling but additionally a whole lot of uncertainty. I in the end assume that the Dodgers will win the division, nevertheless it may not be as cut-and-dried as many assumed it will be after their large offseason.
Gilbert: The Dodgers haven’t run away with the division but, however they’ve a depth the Diamondbacks can’t match. A.J. has laid out a few of the Padres depth points, however I nonetheless assume they may be a bit higher. It will likely be fascinating to look at in one other week or so when the NL West groups begin enjoying one another. One factor to notice, if the Diamondbacks’ shock run to the World Collection in 2023 confirmed us something, it’s that an NL West workforce doesn’t must be higher than the Dodgers over 162 video games, solely in a brief sequence. Arizona can be comfortable simply to get into the postseason and take its possibilities with a entrance three of Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
Guardado: The Dodgers nonetheless really feel like the most important risk given the sheer degree of expertise on their roster. But it surely’s value noting that the Giants have been the final workforce to dethrone Los Angeles within the Nationwide League West in 2021, once they got here out of nowhere to win a franchise-record 107 video games. Time will inform if the Giants will have the ability to return to these heights this yr, however they positively consider they will defy expectations and keep aggressive within the division, particularly now that Buster Posey is again main the group.
