The variety of European travellers visiting the US has fallen sharply as political and financial pressure and fears of a hostile border underneath President Donald Trump threaten the world’s most profitable air routes.
Guests from western Europe who stayed not less than one evening within the US fell by 17 per cent in March from a yr in the past, based on the Worldwide Commerce Administration.
Journey from some nations — together with Eire, Norway and Germany — fell by greater than 20 per cent, an FT evaluation of ITA information confirmed.
The development poses a risk to the US tourism business, which accounts for two.5 per cent of the nation’s GDP. Some airways and lodge teams have warned of waning demand for transatlantic journey and a “dangerous buzz” about visiting the US.
The whole variety of abroad guests travelling to the US dropped by 12 per cent year-on-year in March, the steepest decline since March 2021 when the journey sector was reeling from pandemic restrictions, based on the ITA information.
“In simply two months [Trump] has destroyed the popularity of the US, proven a technique by diminished journey from the EU to the US,” stated Paul English, co-founder of journey web site Kayak. “This isn’t just one extra horrible blow to the US financial system, it additionally represents popularity injury that would take generations to restore.”
The decline might have partly mirrored the rise in journey throughout Easter, which fell in March final yr, stated Adam Sacks, president at Tourism Economics.
However he stated different information, together with from US airports and land crossings from Canada, all confirmed “it’s very clear one thing is going on . . . and it’s a response to Trump”.
Transatlantic routes are essentially the most worthwhile on the earth, and airways have loved booming demand on these flights for the reason that pandemic, particularly in premium seats.
Virgin Atlantic final week warned of a “modest” slowdown in demand for transatlantic flying from US customers, and Air France-KLM’s CEO Ben Smith on Wednesday stated the service had been pressured to chop financial system class transatlantic fares amid “slight softness” out there.
However British Airways proprietor IAG and US service Delta Air Traces each stated they’d not seen any impression.
Airline fortunes are intently tied to the broader financial system, as customers have a tendency to carry off on flying when they’re frightened a couple of recession. Barclays analysts stated this week they remained involved about transatlantic routes, the place they anticipated profitability to be “abruptly diminished”.
Naren Shaam, CEO of journey reserving web site Omio, stated cancellation charges for bookings to the US have been 16 per cent larger within the first quarter than a yr earlier — with travellers from the UK, Germany and France displaying a fair larger cancellation fee of 40 per cent.
Sébastien Bazin, chief government of French lodge large Accor, informed Bloomberg that stories of detentions on the US border had created a “dangerous buzz” round visiting the US.
Accor final week stated bookings for Europeans guests to the US this summer time have been down 25 per cent.
The drop in worldwide guests to the US underscores the potential financial impression of a extra aggressive border coverage underneath Trump.
Final yr, worldwide guests spent greater than $253bn on US journey and tourism-related items and providers, based on the ITA, or greater than 19 per cent of $1.3tn in US journey spending in 2024.
The US Journey Affiliation, an business group, warned of “regarding tendencies”, which it put all the way down to elements together with “a query of America’s welcomeness”.
Delta president Glen Hauenstein stated that the service had seen a “vital” drop in bookings from Canada. The airline pulled its steerage this week amid the broader uncertainty.
Gloria Sync, an artist and creator in Nottingham, England, stated she cancelled a Could journey to San Francisco after seeing stories of detained vacationers.
“The borders appear unsafe,” stated Sync, who’s transgender and stated she was additionally frightened concerning the “undesirable consideration” her identification might deliver on the border. “I don’t know if I’ll ever return, to be sincere.”
Journey from Canadians, a key supply of tourism for “winter-sun” locations, has additionally declined. Locations within the US akin to Las Vegas, for instance, welcomed 1.4mn Canadians in 2023 — or 1 / 4 of all worldwide guests.
Analysis agency Tourism Economics, which had beforehand estimated a 9 per cent enhance in worldwide arrivals in comparison with 2024, final week revised its forecast to a 9.4 per cent decline as an alternative after Trump’s tariff announcement final week.
Sacks additionally pointed to Trump’s aggressive rhetoric in direction of the EU, Greenland and Canada. “These are all unforced errors, and so they have a major impact on sentiment in direction of the US, and subsequently journey.”
Trump’s tariffs and his administration’s dismantling of overseas support company USAID led retiree Paul Harrington, a Briton dwelling in Paris, to cancel a visit to Washington DC subsequent yr.
Each of his daughters within the UK work in training and a recession might put public sector jobs in danger.
“I’m now contacting my US associates to go to me in Paris,” stated Harrington. “I can’t go to the States till Trump is gone.”
