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April is the month of the arched eyebrow.
After the chilly winter months questioning how gamers would carry out come spring, we get our solutions out of the gate, however we don’t all the time belief them. How a lot of that is actual? How a lot is the results of a small pattern? In fact, the extra numbers we get, the stronger we really feel a few participant’s efficiency. However some numbers give us a deeper sense of belief than others.
We’re not fairly a month into the Triple-A season but, however we’re shut. With Statcast accessible at that degree, there may be some information that may assist our understanding of gaudy numbers or assist us see prospects in numerous methods than conventional stats can on their very own.
Listed below are some Statcast numbers that ought to draw curiosity for Prime 100 prospects on the Minors’ highest degree:
Roman Anthony: 31.9 % barrel price (barrel per batted-ball occasion)
First, let’s outline what a barrel is — a batted ball with an exit velocity of 98 mph or larger hit at an optimum launch angle (as is predicated on the precise exit velocity). In different phrases, should you hit a barrel, you pounded the ball as deliberate. Anthony — the highest position-player prospect in baseball — leads Triple-A with 15 barrels, coming into this week; nobody else has greater than 12. His 31.9 % barrel price can also be tops amongst 266 Triple-A hitters (min. 50 PA); nobody within the Majors has one larger than 27.6 (Cal Raleigh) beneath the identical restrictions. The Purple Sox high prospect has the prodigious power to hit the ball arduous, and he makes the appropriate swing selections to optimize that physicality. It’s a potent mixture in Worcester and a cause to be excited past his good .273/.415/.530 line by means of 18 video games.
Alex Freeland: 63.9 % hard-hit price
Exhausting-hit price is outlined as proportion of batted-ball occasions at or above 95 mph exit velocity, that means greater than three-fifths of the ball the Dodgers’ No. 5 prospect is placing in play for Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis are scorchers. That’s fascinating coming from a switch-hitter with what was thought of common pop coming into 2025. Freeland doesn’t have the upper-tier high EVs that Anthony does — he’s maxed out at 109.5 mph to date — and his strikeout price has crept again as much as 26.5 %. However when he will get bat to ball, it tends to be loud contact, and his 11 doubles in 21 video games converse to that.
Harry Ford: 10.2 % chase price
At 22 years outdated, the Mariners’ No. 4 prospect is without doubt one of the youngest gamers in Triple-A ball, however you wouldn’t comprehend it by his method. Ford has swung at solely 10.2 % of pitches exterior the zone over 56 plate appearances. That’s the bottom chase price for any of the 241 Triple-A hitters who’ve seen 100 pitches exterior the zone to date in 2025. He’s solely swung and missed on two of these 12 swings too. Ford’s general .238/.411/.262 is actually an odd one for Tacoma, however that OBP isn’t a gentle one proper now. Specializing in extra drivable pitches within the days forward may assist Ford’s different numbers come round in his first style of Tacoma.
Bubba Chandler: 4-seam fastball metrics
There have been 78 Triple-A pitchers who’ve thrown no less than 100 four-seam fastballs this season. Amongst them, Chandler ranks third in common induced vertical break (18.5 inches), fourth in common velocity (98.5 mph), fifth in whiff proportion (41.8 %) and eighth in common spin price (2,451 rpm). It’s a tough pitch with a ton of spin and journey, and batters haven’t been capable of contact that kind of warmth with solely three hits of Chandler’s four-seamer in 4 begins. The Pirates’ No. 1 prospect owns a 1.76 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 23 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings.
Caden Dana: 56.0 % slider whiff price
Just one Prime 100 prospect has thrown a pitch 25 or extra occasions at Triple-A this season and generated a whiff price above 50 %. That’s the Angels right-hander’s gyro slider, which has slightly extra vertical drop and rather less sweep than it did within the Majors final yr. The Angels’ No. 2 prospect is throwing from a barely larger slot, which could be affecting that motion, and he’s nonetheless relying totally on his four-seam fastball towards batters from either side (61.7 %) and going to different choices towards lefties. However the slider has been a downright weapon towards righties and will supply him a return to Anaheim after his one look on April 4.
Owen Caissie: .611 xSLG
On the lookout for a prospect who could be able to pop off? Flip to the Cubs’ No. 3 prospect, who enters this week with only a .208/.296/.479 line and 97 wRC+ for Triple-A Iowa. Caissie’s .611 anticipated slugging proportion — based mostly on a calculation of things similar to exit velocity and launch angle — is third-best amongst 232 Triple-A gamers with no less than 50 plate appearances. Solely Anthony (.711) and Will Wilson (.688) rank larger. Positive, Caissie’s general strikeout numbers are a difficulty with a 37 % Ok price, however his loud contact (53.6 % hard-hit price, 28.6 % barrel price) may result in extra eye-popping numbers, particularly because it warms up throughout the Worldwide League.
